FOVEA is the area of maximum visual acuity and colour discrimination in the eyes. OBERAZA is the olfactory system (sense of smell)’s nerves point. Briefly FOVEA OBERAZA makes the user of Political Stability Indices to anticipate/foresee and sniff before the others.

To summarize, Fovea Oberaza has the following advantages:

• We constantly cross-check and fine tune our model,
• Our subscribers can rely on our same-day-response instant analysis service if they need an evaluation of a particular index straight away,
• Our subscribers can rely on the accuracy of our tried and tested model,
• We offer unparalleled accurate, impartial and up-to-date evaluations of political risk,
• Our analyses have no time delay so our subscribers can stay ahead of the game.

Fovea Oberaza is the political risk analysis service for Turkey, provided by S Informatics Consulting, Turkey’s leading risk analysis consultancy. Used by publications such as The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Hürriyet Daily News in their analyses of Turkish economic and political realities, as well as banks, prestigious holdings and the governments of a number of Turkey’s major allies, our services have proved invaluable to our subscribers who wish to gain accurate insight into a range of issues of vital importance to Turkey.

Political analysis and risk measurements are seen as basic parameters for determining the price of tangible assets in financial markets. For many markets, such instruments are incredibly important tools and their results can have decisive impacts, whilst miscalculations, or the insensitive handling of data, can be highly damaging.

In Turkey there is a distinct lack of sufficiently neutral political risk, and stability analysis and research, free from political influence. If we look back at the last 50-60 years of such work, we will see that most such analyses failed to predict four coups, a number of severe economic crises and varying acts of political violence. At the same time, predictions of crises, coups and so forth, were generally incorrect and often even politically motivated.

How political activity is experienced and assessed is shaped, to a large extent, by the media in Turkey. Neither public nor private actors are able to fully determine whether political activity and how it is reported is independent or not. The structure of the media, with ownership overlapping with interests, makes it impossible to make accurate judgements regarding political activity in the country. Evaluating such political activity accurately is the key to determining the price of tangible assets.

The current problem is that the few institutions that seek to accurately and impartially assess political activity in Turkey deliver their results slowly, often making their analyses completely ineffective for use in price determination. Our analyses have no time delay and allow our subscribers to stay ahead of the game.

For us there are two aspects to our approach that are particularly important. Firstly, Turkey presents a unique politico-socio-economic setting and should be treated as such: We should not assume that models and techniques that work elsewhere can be reproduced identically. Secondly, our model does not only contain historical analyses but also probabilistic predictions and comparisons. This is what we refer to as “activated reality” – a predictive process that changes in real-time as new data arise.

Many political analyses present their evaluations of political risk on a 0-1 scale; in other words, definitively claiming that political activity will develop in a certain way or that it will not. However, political activity can be influenced by many different sub-elements that may not be fully apparent or whose influence will appear only partially, at least in official discourse. These elements must be factored into any calculations of political activity if they are to be accurate.

Moreover, Fovea Oberaza evaluates political risk using a (+/-) “0.25, 0.375, 0.50, 0.625, 0.75, 0.875, 1” rating, corresponding to probable-possible-serious-absolute, respectively. We also cross-check our predictions against our evaluations to further enhance our model. In doing so, we greatly increase the sensitivity of our model.